2024 ITALIAN GRAND PRIX: PRACTICE AND QUALIFYING RECAP

Welcome back to race coverage for the 2024 Italian Grand Prix! A lot has happened since the return from Summer Break, and I feel that this Sunday, no matter the outcome, will be one of the season’s highlights. 

Here’s what happened between Friday and Saturday: 

FREE PRACTICES 

For those not in the know, Free Practice sessions (often abbreviated as FP) give teams opportunities to familiarize themselves with track conditions, test out tire compounds, work on car set-ups, and essentially gather as much data as possible to best prepare for Qualifying and Sunday’s race. 

Max Verstappen topped the first session on Friday. Charles Leclerc (with a 0.228-second gap) and Lando Norris followed behind in second and third-lap results.  FP1 had one red flag incident involving F1 debutante Kimi Antonelli (who drove George Russell’s car for the season), who crashed into the barriers after losing control while attempting to turn at Parabolica (an iconic corner at the Monza circuit).

Antonelli, luckily, came out of it unscathed. George Russell’s reaction to the incident became an instant meme:

A few hours later, Lewis Hamilton finished with the top lap results during FP2. Norris came in second (with a gap of 0.003 seconds), and Carlos Sainz finished the session in third place. There was another red flag incident, this time involving Kevin Magnussen, who crashed into the barriers.  

Saturday started in the world of Formula One with a long-awaited announcement. Mercedes has (finally) confirmed that Kimi Antonelli will take over Hamilton's for the 2025 season. That means the 2025 season roster is nearly complete. Let’s see who takes up the remaining vacant seats at Audi (currently known as Kick Sauber) and VCARB.

Later in the day, FP3 saw Hamilton come out on top again, with current and future teammates George Russell and Charles Leclerc. Thankfully, there were no incidents during the session.  

QUALIFYING 

I found the knockout rounds quite mellow compared to Zandvoort’s shock knockouts, disqualifications, penalties, and starting grid changes. It doesn’t mean, however, that the race will be boring. Without further ado, here is an outline of today’s Qualifying: 

CUT FROM Q1

16. Yuki Tsunoda (VCARB) 

17. Lance Sttroll (Aston Martin)

18. Franco Colapinto (Williams) 

19. Valterri Bottas (Kick Sauber)

20. Zhou Guanyu (Kick Sauber)                 

CUT FROM Q2 

11. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) 

12. Daniel Ricciardo (VCARB)

13. Kevin Magnussen (Haas)

14. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

15. Esteban Ocon (Alpine) 

Q3 RESULTS

1. Lando Norris (McLaren) 

2. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

3. George Russell (Mercedes) 

4. Charles Leclerc (Ferrrari)

5. Carlos Sainz (Ferrrari)

6. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

7. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) 

8. Sergio Perez (Red Bull) 

9. Alex Albon (Williams) 

10. Nico Hulkenberg (Haas)

INCIDENT NOTES:

• Piastri: Unsafe Release (Almost crashed into Verstappen in Pit Lane during Q1)

• Sainz: Unsafe Release (involving Verstappen in Pit Lane yet again at the beginning of Q3)

As both occurred during Qualifying, McLaren and Ferrari will receive fine penalties. Had this happened during tomorrow’s race, Piastri and Sainz would have received grid penalties. 

PREDICTIONS

My best-case scenario prediction would be a 1-2 finish for McLaren. With only a 70-point gap between Norris and Verstappen in the Drivers’ Championship rankings, the team will want to decrease the gap between them as much as possible. That means that strategists will most likely prioritize a Norris victory and place Piastri in a defensive position to hold off any interruptions to their positioning.

My question going into tomorrow is, can McLaren’s strategy guarantee that Piastri won’t be caught in the crossfire of peculiar strategy or uncoordinated tire calls tomorrow?

When looking at Ferrari, Leclerc might have at least a third-place finish (second if Piastri gets caught up with race chaos or bad luck). I also don’t want to discount Sainz, who finished third last year. This will be the last time the Spanish driver will race in front of the Tifosi as a Ferrari driver, so it might give him the impetus to outperform Leclerc.  

Given today’s results, Verstappen is probably determined to fight to the top and stay up there. Perez, I’m not the most confident about. Given his track record in Monza, the Dutch driver will likely finish in the top three compared to his teammate. If Verstappen does catch up with Norris, it will be a matter of the latter fending off until the checkered flag.  

Hamilton and Russell both have a chance of finishing in the top five. It depends on whether or not the machinery will let them. Seeing that Hamilton could climb up positions and secure points after his penalty last week, I would not be surprised if Hamilton wound up on a podium himself or even surprised everyone by winning the Grand Prix. 

The fight McLaren brings to tomorrow can be split two-fold. It is a battle against Ferrari to secure a sought-after Italian Grand Prix victory at the Temple of Speed. Ultimately, it will be a war against Red Bull to seize both Constructors’ and Drivers’ Championship titles.

Come back tomorrow for coverage of the 2024 Italian Grand Prix here on Vintage & Coupe.