Behind every Formula One World Drivers’ Championship Max Verstappen seized between 2021, 2022, and 2023, fellow Red Bull driver Sergio “Checo” Perez was not far behind from the title himself. Perez’s role as the highly competitive yet critically supportive second driver had been anything but a minor contributing factor to Red Bull’s three-year dominance in the Constructors’ Championship since breaking Mercedes’ seven-year streak in 2022.
Though the team had made an unsurprisingly strong start to the 2024 season, the uptick in differing Grand Prix winners from Ferrari, Mercedes, and an increasingly emboldened McLaren threatens to end Red Bull’s reign. Sergio Perez, much to the team’s dismay, has been playing a concerning role in the team’s downfall, and Red Bull’s responses thus far have been eyebrow-raising.
Perez’s first season at Red Bull in 2021 concluded with a fourth-place finish in the Drivers’ Championship, one Grand Prix victory, and five podiums. He ranked third in 2022 with two Grand Prix victories and eleven podiums. Last season, Perez was second in the Drivers' Championship with two Grand Prix victories and nine podiums. He was the only driver besides Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz (the only non-Red Bull victor of that season) who won a race in 2023.
Perez started the 2024 season with consistent results, often finishing second or third place, except at the Australia Grand Prix, where he finished fifth. At some point, he was ranked second in the driver standings, just behind Max Verstappen. After his third-place podium finish in China, Perez’s race results were inconsistent, either getting some points outside of the podium with an average eight-place finish or not getting points from two back-to-back DNFs in Monaco and Canada and a seventeenth-place finish at the British Grand Prix.
With the season halfway, the Mexican driver currently ranks seventh in the Drivers' Championship with 131 points. Verstappen is in first place with 277 points, which leaves a 146-point difference between the drivers. As constructor points (aka the team points) are the sum of the driver points, Red Bull is still in first place with 408 points. While this might sound like great news, the diversity of Grand Prix winners and podium finishes sans Perez increasingly threatens Red Bull’s dominance.
McLaren is currently ranked second with 366 points (the team’s drivers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, are currently ranked second and fourth after their respective maiden wins and combined twelve podium finishes). With only a 42-point difference between the constructors, it wouldn’t take much for McLaren to overtake Red Bull in the constructor and driver rankings. Even if Verstappen and Red Bull were to win the Drivers' and Constructors' Championships this season, Perez’s inconsistent racing could drag down the team’s ranking during the 2025 season and give way to McLaren, Ferrari, or Mercedes to fight for first place.
It is no secret that Red Bull has never hesitated to replace drivers to stay ahead of the competition. In 2019, the team demoted Pierre Gasly to Toro Russo and replaced him with Alex Albon. Albon himself could not keep up with Verstappen or team expectations. Red Bull promptly replaced the Thai driver with Sergio Perez for the 2020 season. Of course, no one can forget the swift roster change within AlphaTauri (fka Toro Russo and currently known as VCARB) to replace a struggling Nyck de Vries with Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull’s then-third driver, during the 2023 season. Given this recent track record of changing rosters, it is natural for many to wonder if Perez is to face the same fate of being swiftly cut and replaced.
Much to everyone’s surprise, however, Red Bull announced on June 4th, 2024, that Perez had signed a two-year extension, keeping him in the team’s seat until 2026.
Not long after the announcement, rumors swirled about stating that the contract contained a performance clause - if Perez was more than a hundred points behind Verstappen, Red Bull could replace him. Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s senior advisor since 1990, confirmed in July that such a clause existed, meaning that Perez isn’t entirely out of the woods yet.
The Monday following the Belgian Grand Prix, where Perez finished seventh, and Verstappen finished fourth, team principal Christian Horner announced to the Red Bull factory in Milton Keynes that the Mexican driver would continue to drive for the team after the summer break. Considering the 146-point difference between Perez and Verstappen, more murmurs began their rounds, particularly one insinuating that Liberty Media (owner of Formula One) may have pressured Red Bull to keep Perez in fears that it could have a significant financial impact on the Mexican Grand Prix (Perez's home race), which is to take place in October.
Helmut Marko has insisted that this isn’t the case, saying, "Reports that his continued involvement is due to Liberty Media's wish for him to drive in Mexico are not true…They certainly want him to contest his home race, but our choice of driver is not based on Liberty's intentions."
If the choice to keep Perez were Red Bull’s exercising their best judgment (and free of outside interference), they would most likely wait a few races before making a final decision. If Red Bull decides to enforce the clause, it will only be a matter of time before an official announcement or a statement is released.
So, what would happen if Red Bull decided to replace Perez? Who would replace him? Two candidates naturally surface: Daniel Ricciardo (formerly with Red Bull and currently with VCARB) and Liam Lawson (reserve driver for both Red Bull and VCARB). Both drivers have yet to confirm their fates for the 2025 season. The rumor mill suggests that both men could benefit from a Perez exit.
The more experienced Ricciardo, who has been regaining momentum after a shaky start to the season, would be the favored driver to replace Perez in this scenario. The Australian driver has been open about his desire to return to Red Bull. His exit following the 2018 season brought about Gasly as his first replacement, followed by Albon and finally Perez. At least in a cyclic way, it would be fitting for Red Bull to bring Ricciardo back and spin his return as a prodigal son’s homecoming. The producers behind Drive to Survive would be overjoyed to weave this hypothetical outcome into the inevitable Daniel Ricciardo-centric episode next season. An opportunity would open up for Red Bull to finally promote Lawson, who impressed last season with a five-race stint while replacing an injured Ricciardo. Of course, Ricciardo may or may not keep his current spot, and there is a chance that Lawson is promoted directly to Red Bull.
The Dutch Grand Prix this weekend will be the first of Perez’s few chances to defend his place on the team. Ricciardo will no doubt take advantage of the remaining ten races to prove that he deserves to return to the team he left six years ago. Lawson will have to bide his time, at least until September, when Red Bull will decide on his future seat or lack thereof. It would be unsurprising if the team revisited the question of Perez’s seat, given that he would have had three or four races to prove his merit by then. Everyone else, in the meantime, will have to wait and see.
No matter Perez’s ultimate fate, the only guarantee anyone has at the moment is that Red Bull will always prioritize winning, regardless of who has the second seat.
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